Confronting the Duck Curve: How to Address Over-Generation of Solar Energy

Solar coupled with storage technologies could alleviate, and possibly eliminate, the risk of over-generation. Curtailment isn’t necessary when excess energy can be stored for use during peak electricity demand. SETO launched several projects in 2016 that pair researchers with utilities to examine how storage could make it easier for utilities to rely on solar energy to meet customer needs around the clock. This research will enable even more solar energy to be integrated into the grid, while tackling the obstacles utilities face when incorporating solar.

In 2012, SETO also launched a research program that helped utilities, grid operators, and solar power plant owners to better predict when, where, and how much solar power will be produced. More accurate solar power predictions, known as forecasts, allow utilities and electric system operators to better understand generation patterns and maximize solar resources. One key success came from IBM, whose machine-learning technology enabled prediction accuracy to be improved by 30%. However, as the amount of solar energy generation connected to our electric grid continues to grow at a rapid rate, further improvements in predictive accuracy will be needed.

Bringing it Back to the Duck Curve

There are many potential solutions to the duck curve. The lessons learned from SETO’s projects will be critical to improving the flexibility of the grid and addressing over-generation risks as solar grows throughout the country. According to the Energy Information Administration, the installed amount of PV is expected to triple by 2030—potentially migrating the duck curve outside of California. New and improved technologies will allow PV to provide on-demand capacity and fulfill a greater fraction of total electricity demand.

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